Andre Gomes

In my opinion the Mavericks have all the conditions to get done their job tonight against the Warriors even though at a first sight it looks like a tough game for them. We all know that the Warriors have been the “Mavs nemesis” through the last years and the Mavs are just 1-4 L5 games while the Warriors somehow were able to cover the spread in 6 of their last 10 games. However it’s just the “matchups” that will kill the Warriors tonight and this isn’t reflected in any trend or whatever.

The Mavs are having some problems in containing the opposing Point Guard as Jason Kidd isn’t the same great defensive player anymore. Andre Miller, Deron Williams or even Monta Ellis torched the Mavs as of late. However the Mavs can live with that as long as they dominate the boards and secure the paint. The problem is that even in this department the Mavs are showing unexpected problems. For example in the last game, the Wolves big men simply crushed the Mavs bigs: Al Jefferson shot 7-11 FG, Ryan Hollins 6-12 FG and Kevin Love shot 8-12 FG. We are talking about a combined mark of 21-35 from the field - a 60% clip! Blazers F LaMarcus Aldridge has shot 10-20 FG against Dallas, Paul Millsap 10-16 FG and so the Mavs failed to win in those games.

Fortunately for them, the Warriors don’t have any offensive power in their frontcourt and naturally that the Mavericks will solve this problem tonight. In the last game between these two teams the Mavs had some problems to win due to a huge performance from Monta Ellis who ended the game with a career high 46 points while shooting 17-23 from the field - still the Warriors lost by 9 points! Note that the Warriors had only 13 assists vs. 21 turnovers which tell us that they are playing selfish basketball as of late and they can’t secure the ball as well. In fact, in the last 2 games they had 36 assists vs. 44 turnovers! Also in that game, the Warriors had an unexpected and rare edge in the boards 15-7 in offensive boards - it was the first time in 10 games that they had more boards than their opponents so for tonight I don’t think that the Warriors will have a similar edge tonight.

Corey Maggette is banged up for tonight and some reports are saying that he is out for tonight. Nevertheless the Warriors have only in Monta Ellis and possibly Stephen Curry their offensive anchors and this isn’t enough to win. For some reason they are 0-8 in the last games with the only win being against…the Nets!

The Mavericks will come for this game with a huge sense of urgency due to their bad stretch as of late: “We’re disappointed with the way we’ve been playing,” Carlisle said after practice Sunday. “We’re looking forward to [tonight]. We want to end the first 52 games of the season on a high note.”

Take the Mavericks in here as my Single Dime Play.

First Update:Ok, we have Dallas in here as a big public target tonight. Nevertheless I believe that we have a slightly edge with them as my key line is two full ball possessions (-6 pts) for them so I’m taking Dallas. I don’t expect this line to change favoring the Mavs while the oddmakers are giving “too much love” for the Warriors who are supposedly a “tough team” to beat at home.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Dallas Mavericks (-4)@1.91 on Bookmaker