Andre Gomes

WTA Auckland - Maria Kirilenko vs Kaia Kanepi

Match to be played at 01:00 CET (00:00 GMT)

This wasn’t the match everybody was expecting to watch, as Na Li was the overwhelming favorite to beat Kaia Kanepi yesterday, but an absolute no show of the Chinese player allowed Kanepi to win her second match since May, however Kanepi’s poor play is still there. Maybe not as bad as it was a couple of months ago, but still far from possessing the necessary tennis to beat an in-form Kirilenko in here.

Maria Kirilenko, after a slump in the beginning of 2009, really stepped it up last Summer and finished the season quite well, with some caliber wins against players like Agnieszka Radwanska (x2) and Aleksandra Wozniak.  And it looks like she is not slowing down this season, as she entered 2010 with a very easy win over Tatjana Malek by 6-2 6-3, a tricky match for Kirilenko, as Malek is actually quite talented and is currently one place away from entering the Top 70. Kirilenko served very well and with her good baseline skills, especially with her forehand, she dominated the rallies and conquered an easy win.

Now facing Kanepi, Kirilenko has the right game plan to make the Estonian player struggle and it’s not a surprise to see that Kirilenko defeated her twice on hardcourt back in 2008, when Kanepi was on her best form ever. Kirilenko serves quite well and her ability to hit the ball well from the baseline, always moving a lot her opponents, will put Kanepi on a pretty defensive position, where the Estonian player due to her lack of lateral movement will certainly struggle. Even though Kanepi played a bit better yesterday and looked also more fit than usual, Kirilenko is the in-form player of the two and I expect the Russian player to use her baseline game full of variety to beat Kanepi, who will end up hitting a lot of errors when she gets in disadvantage in the scoreboard. The spread for this game would be acceptable if both players were at her best and in the same form, which isn’t the case, and so I’ll be taking Kirilenko minus the games in here.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Maria Kirilenko (-2,5 Games) @1.855 on Pinnacle