Ago 31
FIBA World Championships 31/08:Russia vs Côte D’Ivoire
Categoria(s): Free Pick, World Cup

FIBA World Championships - 701 Russia vs 702 Côte D’Ivoire

*** Single Dime Play ***

In this early game I think that we have some value with the Over as my projected line appoints to 146/149 points. Being this contest an “one sided” contest between Russia and Ivory Coast the pivotal question is to know how many points the favorite team will put in the board and in my opinion this is the area that the bookmakers failed to understand the Russian side.

In the first two contests, Russia scored only 75 and 56 points but note that they were facing a decent Puertorriquena defensive team and top defensive unit like Turkey so these low scoring numbers are easy to understand and read. Despite this, Russia showed a good ball movement with 21/9 and 12/12 A/TO ratios so their problem was really shooting the ball. Against a team like Ivory Coast they won’t have any kind of problem to score with ease. Turkey and China dropped 86 and 83 points on them and they didn’t enjoy good offensive games as both shot only 43% from the field! I really expect Russia to be near the 90’s points today.

Obviously the other question is to know how many points Ivory Coast will score today?! In the first game against Turkey they scored only 47 points but there are some attenuates: they have lost one of their best players before the game and they were playing against the host team in their first game – wild environment that easily impressed an inexperienced team, heck they shot 29,3% from 2pts range in that game! However against China even though they shot a subpar mark of 36,5% from the field they were able to score 73 points. I expect them to score +60’s points today as the game will be so easy for Russia that they’ll tend to relax a bit on the defensive end. Take the Over 142 in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units on 701/702 Over 142 @ -110 / 1,91 on Bookmaker

Autor: admin | Comentários: 0
Ago 30
FIBA World Championships 30/08: Angola vs Argentina
Categoria(s): Free Pick, World Cup

FIBA World Championships - 509 Angola vs 510 Argentina

*** Single Dime Play ***

I’m aware that so far in the tournament the African teams have been killed in every single game, but at least Angola is one step above all the other African teams. My play basically is a fade play on the bad spot that Argentina is involved today. They are coming from 2 tough dogfights against Germany and Australia and in both games their experience prevailed down the stretch. The problem is that their national head coach simply didn’t rotate their best players. In fact, Argentina is coming shorthanded for this World Cup as Manu Ginobili and Andreas Nocioni were scratches before the tournament started and Oberto didn’t play yesterday and he is also out for today. To make things even worse, yesterday 4 of the 5 Argentine starters logged at least 33 minutes – we are talking about more than 80% of usage and let’s not forget that will be the third consecutive game for these two teams! Because Angola is their easiest game so far, I expect Argentina to be little sloppy and just “OK” in terms of effort and hustle when compared of what Angola will bring to the court. Angola is coming from a nice win yesterday against Lebanon and I think that we have some value with the +18,5 points spread for them. Take Angola +18,5 in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units on 505 Angola (+18,5) @ -110 / 1,91 on Bookmaker

Autor: admin | Comentários: 0
Ago 30
FIBA World Championships 30/08: Australia vs Germany
Categoria(s): Free Pick, World Cup

NOTE: we might have one more play for today

FIBA World Championships - 505 Australia vs 506 Germany

*** Single Dime Play ***

Yesterday Germany shocked the world by defeating Serbia 82-81 on a thrilling Double Overtime win. If we add to the discussion that they were involved in another dogfight in the first game of the tournament against Argentina, this is really a bad physical spot for them: 3rd consecutive game without resting and coming from a double overtime game yesterday. I strongly believe that a letdown will happen for them, as yesterday their shocking win was due to a strong shooting contest: 49,2% from the field, 8-21 behind the arc and 10-12 from the free throw line. In terms of “hustling factors” they were completely dominated by the Serbians 27-43 in the glass with a devastating 4-14 numbers in the offensive boards battle. For today I don’t think that they can handle against a more physical and “fresher” team like Australia, while shooting almost 50% from the field won’t happen in game to game basis.

Meanwhile Australia is coming from a bad taste loss against Argentina in a game they should have won, but faded away down the stretch when Luis Scola took the control of the game. In my power rankings I have Australia 3pts better than Germany if both teams would have to play against each other in normal circumstances, but like I’ve said before this isn’t a normal game as Australia have the physical edge in here. Take Australia -2 as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units on 505 Australia (-2) @ -110 / 1,91 on Bookmaker

Autor: admin | Comentários: 0
Ago 28
FIBA 2010 World Championships Day 1 28/08
Categoria(s): Free Pick, World Cup

The FIBA World Championships start tomorrow and I will be closely following the tournament. As I’ve already said on some previous daily messages, I have been preparing myself for this competition for a long time now by making deep researches on every team. In order to give you a sample of my work on this competition, all my plays for Day 1 of the WC will be absolutely free of charge, including a future bet on the outright winner.

FIBA World Championships - Outright Winner

*** Single Dime Play ***

For -155 / 1.635 odds, we are getting about 60% of chances for the United States to win it all and according to my numbers the USA team should get at least 65%. No team in this Championships has more depth than the USA and more importantly, they have one edge that was missing in the previous US teams: a great team defense! In the last World Cup, USA allowed for example 100 points vs. Puerto Rico, 90 vs. China or 95 points against Slovenia… This won’t happen with this team! In their last 3 preparation games they allowed 61, 85 and 59 points against 3 European Top Teams: Lithuania, Spain and Greece. With the teams accumulating games after games in the WC, their physical edge will keeping growing up, while their team chemistry will surely keep improving until the later stages. Spain is without Pau Gasol and Greece lacks offensive weapons to handle in a fair match Durant and his friends. I’m taking the USA to win the FIBA 2010 World Cup.

Pick: 3 units on 701 United States to win @ -155  on 5Dimes

FIBA World Championships - 501 Greece vs 502 China

*** Single Dime Play ***

Pick: 3 units on 501 Greece (-18,5) @ -110  on 5Dimes


FIBA World Championships - 505 Australia vs 506 Jordan

*** Single Dime Plays***

Pick: 3 units on 505 Australia (-16) @ -110  on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units on 505/506 Under 146,5 @ -110  on Bookmaker

FIBA World Championships - 511 Canada vs 512 Lebanon

*** Single Dime Play ***

Pick: 3 units on 511/512 Over 153,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

FIBA World Championships - 517 Cote D’Ivoire vs 518 Turkey

*** Single Dime Play ***

Pick: 3 units on 518 Turkey (-21) @ -110  on Bookmaker

FIBA World Championships - 519 France vs 520 Spain

*** Single Dime Play ***

Pick: 3 units on 519/520 Under 148,5 @ -110  on Bookmaker

FIBA World Championships - 521 Germany vs 522 Argentina

*** Single Dime Play ***

Pick: 3 units on 521/522 Under 148,5 @ -110 on Bookmaker

Autor: admin | Comentários: 0
Jul 12
World Cup Final Play: Netherlands vs Spain
Categoria(s): Premium pick, Soccer Picks, World Cup
World Cup Soccer: Netherlands vs Spain
*Single Dime Play(s)*

This is the big final and in our quest to find value, Netherlands is “the valuable bet” in here, as Spain is being completely overrated by the market.

My true matrix for this contest is Spain with 42-45%; Draw with 28-31% and Netherlands with 27-30% chances to win, so in a perfect world, without “the vig” my true odds are
Spain [+122, +138], Draw [+222, +257] and Netherlands [+233, +270]. Looking at Pinnacle’s current odds, we have Spain @ +110, Draw @ +238 and Netherlands @ +304. As you can see, only Netherlands offers some value according to my projected lines and I’m sticking with them.

Now into the game matchups and game plans for both teams…

Spain is coming from an impressive win against Germany in the Semi Finals in which they dominated the ball possession that prevented the Germans to perform their dangerous fast break plays. I was expecting that! In fact it was one of the biggest factors for my Under play in that game:

“Besides that the Spanish ball possession style prevents them of suffering those kind of fast break situations that the Germans are used to perform. In fact, this will be the first game of the tournament that Germany will face a pure “ball possession” team (the other team with such characteristics in this WC is Netherlands) and not having the ball will be something new for them.”

After watching the Germans being dismantled by the Spanish terrific ball movement, I just don’t expect the Dutch team to have a similar passive approach on the game! Not only because it’s not in their “genes” to play such conservative style, but also they KNOW that no national team in the world can beat Spain by doing that.

So I expect Netherlands to press higher in the pitch and besides that let’s not forget that the Dutch side also loves to retain the ball: “In fact, this will be the first game of the tournament that Germany will face a pure “ball possession” team (the other team with such characteristics in this WC is the Netherlands)”

The consequence for such attitude is a more wide open game since the start. In this World Cup the Under is 5-1 in games involving Spain because their opponent simply didn’t want to attack, the only “crazy” team that attempted that was Chile and not coincidently, the game went over the total posted with Spain winning by 2-1.

I expect both teams to score and naturally I’m playing the Over 2 Goals today.

My other play is Netherlands +0.5 as like I’ve said before, the Spanish team is overrated and the Netherlands have the tools to make some damage. I remember that the Dutch best offensive player Arjen Robben has a favorable matchup against left fullback Capdevilla (the weakest Spanish player).

I’m not afraid if Spain eventually scores first today. Against Brazil, Netherlands allowed one goal in the first 10 minutes of the game and they played terrifically well after – this is a good indicator for us in this eventual scenario.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2 Goals @ -108 / 1.92 on The Greek

Split the wager:

Pick: 2 units (Single Dime Play) on Netherlands (+0.5) @ -119 / 1.84 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 1 units (Single Dime Play) on Netherlands PK @ +175 / 2.75 on The Greek

Autor: admin | Comentários: 0
Jul 11
World Cup Soccer BIG FINAL Card
Categoria(s): Articles, World Cup

Alright… this is it! Today the new World Soccer Champion will be crowned and I’m featuring a complete report Side + Total Plays in this contest between Spain and Netherlands – ABC 2:30PM EST. We are enjoying a terrific tournament with +31.35 units of profit and I’m looking forward to end it in a high note.

- TOTAL PLAY HAS BEEN ADDED, SIDE PLAY TO BE RELEASED AT AROUND 12PM EST / 6PM CET

WC Record (play by play) SPREADSHEET FILE: JUST CLICK HERE!!!



JUST CLICK HERE

Autor: admin | Comentários: 0
Jul 10
World Cup Play: Germany vs Uruguay
Categoria(s): Free Pick, Soccer Picks, World Cup
World Cup Soccer: Germany vs Uruguay

*Double Dime Play*

Both national coaches will start their best possible lineups so all my projected scenario(s) for this contest is accurate. Some late line movement happened and now we are getting more value with Germany and obviously I’m upgrading the play into a Double Dime Play.

The first factor in this contest is related with the word “motivation”. Note that we are dealing with the losers of the semi finals clashes and at a first sight Uruguay would have the edge in here. After all we are dealing with a minor country that overachieved in their expectations against a major favorite team that is devastated after losing against Spain.

Theoretically Uruguay would have the mental edge but in my opinion this won’t happen today. Let’s not forget that the Germans are typically a “proud people” and an emotional letdown is unlikely to occur today.

Saying that the matchups are completely favoring Germany in here! The Germans were/are the most exciting team to watch in this World Cup and only Spain had the antidote to stop them. The Germans are lethal in fast offensive transitions with dangerous fast break plays but against Spain they couldn’t perform such style because the Spanish team retained the ball for long periods of the time. Is Uruguay able to retain the ball against Germany?

A good stat for such measure is the ball possession% and here’s the numbers from Uruguay in this WC:

Against France: 46% vs 54%
Against South Africa: 50% vs 50%
Against Mexico: 41% vs 59%
Against South Korea: 46% vs 54%
Against Ghana: 48% vs 52%
Against Netherlands: 47% vs 53%

As you can see Uruguay NEVER had a game in which they dominated the ball possession so it’s unlikely such edge happening today against Germany and so Germany will have plenty of chances to create danger from fast offensive transitions.

Certainly Uruguay has their weapons now that Luis Suarez is back but Germany has simply more offensive power and more depth in the roster. Currents odds are giving Germany almost 52% chances of winning while my numbers are 55%-60%. Take Germany today as my Double Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units on Germany ML @ -127 / 1.787 on 5 Dimes (First Update)
Pick: 1 unit on Germany ML @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Autor: admin | Comentários: 0
Jul 09
World Cup Soccer Play: Spain vs Germany
Categoria(s): Premium pick, World Cup
World Cup Soccer: Spain vs Germany
*Single Dime Play*
This is “THE GAME” of the tournament as honestly whatever wins this game they’ll be the clear favorites in the final against Netherlands. My “gut feeling” for this contest is Spain to win however for odds at +155 in 5 Dimes or The Greek (almost 40% of chances to win) we just don’t have the proper edge to make a play with them. I mean… for us to bet in Spain @ +155 then our true odds should be lower than that in order to get some value and no way Spain deserves to get more than 40% chances to win so I’m focusing in the totals market.

In the paper we are dealing with two great offensive teams so the public perception in here is that the “Over” is the right call however the matchup between these two teams favors a low scoring game.

Germany is coming from 2 impressive performances against England and Argentina in which they scored 8 goals in just 180 minutes! (By the way Spain has scored only 6 goals so far in the WC (in 5 games) so you can see the impact that the Germans made in those 2 games.) However Germany just took advantage of some mismatches edges in those games… they love to attack in fast transitions and the majority of their goals came from fast break situations. Saying that please let’s not forget that England played with only defensive minded player in the midfield – Gareth Barry and the same thing happened with Argentina as well with Javier Mascherano so when the Germans recovered the ball they had plenty of space to attack and obviously they pounded them with some terrific fast break plays. This won’t happen today because Spain plays with two defensive minded players in the midfield – Xabi Alonso and Sergio Busquets! It will be hard for Germany to have some much space to attack today after recovering the ball!

Besides that the Spanish ball possession style prevents them of suffering those kind of fast break situations that the Germans are used to perform. In fact, this will be the first game of the tournament that Germany will face a pure “ball possession” team (the other team with such characteristics in this WC is Netherlands) and not having the ball will be something new for them.

Also unlike England and Argentina I just can’t see Spain “freaking out” after allowing one goal today. Germany scored early in both games and then they took advantage of the lack of mental discipline of the English and Argentine side, Spain is way better than them in such factor as they will continue to play “their” game.

On the other side the Spanish offense has been somehow predictable to defend in this World Cup because Fernando Torres is way off his best right now and only David Villa can offer some danger in the front. Yes, Villa is the most dangerous striker in the world right now but the German defense can rather concentrate on him than in Torres.

Yesterday we watched a shootout game between Netherlands and Uruguay but for today I expect the opposite with a pretty interesting battle tactical and I wouldn’t be surprised if this contest goes overtime. Take the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2,2.5 (2.25) Goals @ -109 / 1.90 on 5 Dimes

Autor: admin | Comentários: 0
Jul 06
World Cup Play 03/07: Spain vs Paraguay
Categoria(s): Premium pick, Soccer Picks, World Cup
World Cup Soccer: Spain vs Paraguay
*Triple Dime Play*
Paraguay is one of the surprises in this World Cup but their path ends today against Spain. Their biggest strength is an organized and disciplined defense that is in a streak of 3 consecutive games without allowing a goal. In fact they have the best defense in the world cup with just one goal allowed (against Italy in the 1st game of the WC) however despite the good statistics supporting them I believe that they are overrated…

The reason is pretty simple as Paraguay is yet to face a creative offensive minded team in this world cup: they played against Italy, Slovakia, New Zealand and Japan and neither of these teams have a creative offensive midfield. Now they’ll play against the best midfield of the world and honestly I don’t think that they are able to handle such potent offensive power.

Spain had some anticipated problems against Portugal because the Portuguese team played with all 11 men behind the ball – something that Paraguay will do today but still it wasn’t enough to stop Spain. This is the biggest mismatch game of the Quarterfinals and I’m taking Spain in here as my Triple Dime Play.

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on Spain (-1) @ -112 / 1.89 on 5 Dimes

Autor: admin | Comentários: 0
Jul 02
World Cup Play: Brazil vs Netherlands
Categoria(s): Free Pick, Soccer Picks, World Cup
World Cup Soccer: Brazil vs Netherlands

*Single Dime Play*

I have Brazil with 49%-53% chances of winning this contest and with odds @ +102 (about 49.5%) I hope you understand that isn’t the valuable bet that we are looking for in the long term, instead this is more a “gut feeling” bet.

Netherlands has won each single game in WC so far but honestly I’m not impressed about them. Note that all their opponents Denmark, Japan, Cameroon and Slovakia went to play against them with a conservative and defensive minded approach so the Dutch side could do what they love to do: keep the ball possession! However they are pretty damn slow to advance in the field and besides winger Arjen Robben they don’t have a great dose of explosiveness in the front. Brazil has hands down the best defensive unit in the WC and I expect the Brazilians to manipulate with some ease the Dutch offensive unit.

However in my opinion the biggest mismatch in the game will oppose the Dutch defense vs. Brazilian offense. Because they had mostly the ball possession in each game and BECAUSE they faced some poor offensive teams the Dutch defense wasn’t really tested yet! Yes, they allowed only 2 goals so far (both penalty goals) but for example in the last game they conceded at least 3 great chances to Slovakia to score but the Slovakians failed to capitalize. All those chances were allowed due to the lack of coordination between the back line players. Give those chances to Fabiano, Kaka or Robinho and the story certainly will be different for them!

This defensive line: Van Der Wiel - Heitinga - Mathijsen and Van Bronckhorst is far from being an elite unit and for the first time in the World Cup they will oppose against real top class strikers. All the media is talking about how Robben will pound the Brazilian left fullback Bastos but how about the Van Bronckhorst vs Maicon matchup? Van Bronckhorst is by far the weakest link of Netherlands and today he’ll have to handle the “Formula 1” player…

I expect Brazil to win today and I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Brazil ML @ +102 / 2.02 on 5 Dimes

Autor: admin | Comentários: 0
Seguinte
Andre Gomes é fornecido por ApostaGanha - O Portal das Apostas Desportivas.