NOTE: In my handicapping process, I always use Pinnacle odds to find the edge. However, I’m aware that not everybody has access to Pinnacle and so, to make things easy, I put on every play, the minimum odds or spread that I think it is enough to have a play on that match.
Outright Plays:
ATP US Open - Outright Winner
*** Play this selection up to +211 / 3,116 ***
Roger Federer is the clear favorite to win this tournament, in my opinion. He may been having a poor season for his standards, but he is the true king of this tournament and with his recent win in Cincinnati, he clearly seems to be the player to beat in here. His draw was very kind to him, as nobody on the bottom half seems to be capable of beating him on a best of 5 match right now, as Djokovic, Soderling, Roddick and Davydenko are clearly far from their best. His most likely opponent in the final will be Murray, who simply lacks the stamina and the mental toughness to beat Federer on a Slam final, as Nadal clearly struggles on this type of surface and Berdych isn’t playing as well as he was in Wimbledon. Nalbandian has also a shot, but I can’t see him getting past Verdasco, Ferrer, Nadal, Murray and then beat Federer in the final. So, Federer has the skills and the draw to win another US Open and that’s exactly what I expect to happen in here.
Pick: 1 unit on Roger Federer to win @ +215 / 3,150 on Pinnacle
WTA US Open - Outright Winner
*** Play this selection up to +522 / 6,222 ***
Yes, she hasn’t played since Wimbledon and she is currently nursing a “knee injury” (just an excuse, so she can tour the country to promote her new book). With Serena out, she will represent the Williams clan on this tournament and her draw couldn’t be any easier. Nobody stands a chance against her until the quarter finals, where she will most likely face Azarenka, who has lost to her fair and square in the Dubai final earlier this season. Venus knows how to step it up her game when it matters and even though she will struggle in the first rounds, she should be present in the semi finals, where her odds should be low enough, so we can make an hedge bet and secure some profit on her.
Pick: 1 unit on Venus Williams to win @ +1306 / 14,060 on Pinnacle
Regular Plays:
ATP US Open - Kei Nishikori vs Evgeny Korolev - Today, 16:00 BST
*** Play this selection up to +2,5 Games // +107 / 2,069 ***
Pick: 1 unit on Evgeny Korolev ML @ +163 / 2,630 on Pinnacle
Pick: 2 units on Evgeny Korolev (+3 Games) @ -103 / 1,971 on Pinnacle
ATP US Open - Bjorn Phau vs Ricardo Mello - Today, 16:00 BST
*** Play this selection up to +2,5 Games // -106 / 1,947 ***
Pick: 1 unit on Bjorn Phau ML @ +164 / 2,640 on Pinnacle
Pick: 2 units on Bjorn Phau (+3 Games) @ +104 / 2,040 on Pinnacle
WTA US Open - Maria Elena Camerin vs Sophie Ferguson - Today, 16:00 BST
*** Play this selection up to +3 Games ***
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime) on Sophie Ferguson (+3 Games) @ -108 / 1,926 on Pinnacle
WTA US Open - Elena Baltacha vs Petra Martic - Today, 16:00 BST
*** Play this selection up to -118 / 1,848 ***
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime) on Elena Baltacha ML @ -115 / 1,870 on Pinnacle
WTA US Open - Johanna Larsson vs Alisa Kleybanova - Today, 16:00 BST
WTA US Open - Ana Ivanovic vs Ekaterina Makarova - Today, 21:15 BST
*** Play this selection up to -116 / 1,874 ***
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime) on Alisa Kleybanova ML x Ana Ivanovic ML @ -105 / 1,969 on Pinnacle
WTA US Open - Gisela Dulko vs Angelique Kerber - Today, 17:15 BST
*** Play this selection up to -149 / 1,672 ***
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime) on Gisela Dulko ML @ -110 / 1,909 on Pinnacle
WTA US Open - Michelle Larcher de Brito vs Sania Mirza - Today, 18:00 BST
*** Play this selection up to -126 / 1,804 ***
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime) on Michelle Larcher de Brito ML @ +115 / 2,150 on Pinnacle
ATP US Open - Carsten Ball vs Milos Raonic - Today, 18:30 BST
*** Play this selection up to +104 / 2,035 ***
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime) on Carsten Ball ML @ +109 / 2,090 on Pinnacle
ATP US Open - Leonardo Mayer vs Guillaume Rufin - Today, 18:30 BST
ATP US Open - Tim Smyczek vs Thomaz Bellucci - Today, 21:30 BST
*** Play this selection up to -104 / 1,964 ***
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime) on Leonardo Mayer ML x Thomaz Bellucci ML @ +104 / 2,038 on Pinnacle
WTA US Open - Rebecca Marino vs Ksenia Pervak - Today, 20:30 BST
*** Play this selection up to -3 Games ***
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime) on Ksenia Pervak (-2,5 Games) @ -110 / 1,909 on Pinnacle
Good luck,
André Silva